causal network
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Multi-Treatment-DML: Causal Estimation for Multi-Dimensional Continuous Treatments with Monotonicity Constraints in Personal Loan Risk Optimization
Zhao, Kexin, Wang, Bo, Zhao, Cuiying, Wan, Tongyao
Optimizing credit limits, interest rates, and loan terms is crucial for managing borrower risk and lifetime value (L TV) in personal loan platform. However, counterfactual estimation of these continuous, multi-dimensional treatments faces significant challenges: randomized trials are often prohibited by risk controls and long repayment cycles, forcing reliance on biased observational data. Existing causal methods primarily handle binary/discrete treatments and struggle with continuous, multi-dimensional settings. Furthermore, financial domain knowledge mandates provably monotonic treatment-outcome relationships (e.g., risk increases with credit limit). To address these gaps, we propose Multi-Treatment-DML, a novel framework leveraging Double Machine Learning (DML) to: (i) debias observational data for causal effect estimation; (ii) handle arbitrary-dimensional continuous treatments; and (iii) enforce monotonic constraints between treatments and outcomes, guaranteeing adherence to domain requirements. Extensive experiments on public benchmarks and real-world industrial datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Furthermore, online A/B testing conducted on a realworld personal loan platform, confirms the practical superiority of Multi-Treatment-DML in real-world loan operations.
- Banking & Finance > Credit (0.70)
- Banking & Finance > Loans (0.51)
From EMR Data to Clinical Insight: An LLM-Driven Framework for Automated Pre-Consultation Questionnaire Generation
Ding, Ruiqing, Sun, Qianfang, Leng, Yongkang, Yin, Hui, Li, Xiaojian
Pre-consultation is a critical component of effective healthcare delivery. However, generating comprehensive pre-consultation questionnaires from complex, voluminous Electronic Medical Records (EMRs) is a challenging task. Direct Large Language Model (LLM) approaches face difficulties in this task, particularly regarding information completeness, logical order, and disease-level synthesis. To address this issue, we propose a novel multi-stage LLM-driven framework: Stage 1 extracts atomic assertions (key facts with timing) from EMRs; Stage 2 constructs personal causal networks and synthesizes disease knowledge by clustering representative networks from an EMR corpus; Stage 3 generates tailored personal and standardized disease-specific questionnaires based on these structured representations. This framework overcomes limitations of direct methods by building explicit clinical knowledge. Evaluated on a real-world EMR dataset and validated by clinical experts, our method demonstrates superior performance in information coverage, diagnostic relevance, understandability, and generation time, highlighting its practical potential to enhance patient information collection.
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Complex Dynamics in Psychological Data: Mapping Individual Symptom Trajectories to Group-Level Patterns
Vitanza, Eleonora, DeLellis, Pietro, Mocenni, Chiara, Marin, Manuel Ruiz
This study integrates causal inference, graph analysis, temporal complexity measures, and machine learning to examine whether individual symptom trajectories can reveal meaningful diagnostic patterns. Testing on a longitudinal dataset of N=45 individuals affected by General Anxiety Disorder (GAD) and/or Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) derived from Fisher et al. 2017, we propose a novel pipeline for the analysis of the temporal dynamics of psychopathological symptoms. First, we employ the PCMCI+ algorithm with nonparametric independence test to determine the causal network of nonlinear dependencies between symptoms in individuals with different mental disorders. We found that the PCMCI+ effectively highlights the individual peculiarities of each symptom network, which could be leveraged towards personalized therapies. At the same time, aggregating the networks by diagnosis sheds light to disorder-specific causal mechanisms, in agreement with previous psychopathological literature. Then, we enrich the dataset by computing complexity-based measures (e.g. entropy, fractal dimension, recurrence) from the symptom time series, and feed it to a suitably selected machine learning algorithm to aid the diagnosis of each individual. The new dataset yields 91% accuracy in the classification of the symptom dynamics, proving to be an effective diagnostic support tool. Overall, these findings highlight how integrating causal modeling and temporal complexity can enhance diagnostic differentiation, offering a principled, data-driven foundation for both personalized assessment in clinical psychology and structural advances in psychological research.
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